20 bold predictions for 2020

I will begin this annual tradition of mine by acknowledging a failure of my final prediction of 2019.

You see, in last year’s column, I told you that this year I would simply do a top 10 list of my predictions, as the number of required predictions each year was getting unwieldy.

Alas, there is just so much happening this year that requires a prediction, that I can’t resist — 20 predictions it is! Let’s start the fun.

Prediction 1: Impeachment will fail

The U.S. House will end up impeaching the president, and put many House Democrats — including Jared Golden — in an impossible situation when they do. Ultimately, though, the trial in the Senate will go nowhere, and the entire thing will have been a waste of time.

The Capitol is seen in Washington, early on Dec. 11. Voting on two articles of impeachment against President Trump is expected in a matter of days by the House Judiciary Committee. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

Prediction 2: There will be a failed effort to censure

In order to try to balance some kind of middle ground between the “remove him” fanatics and their “he didn’t do anything wrong” cousins on the other side, there will be an attempt by some in the Senate to take a third path, and a formal censure of the president will be proposed. It too, will fail.

Prediction 3: Mayor Pete Buttigieg will win the Iowa Caucus

Yes, Pete Buttigieg. He’s already building up a strong presence there and is leading in some polls. Many candidates will abandon Iowa altogether, and none of the remainers will really have a good argument for being better than him. He wins in a walk.

Prediction 4: Bernie Sanders will win New Hampshire

Sanders’ only competition is Buttigieg, who could realistically give him a run after winning Iowa. But in the end, it will be Sanders.

Prediction 5: The Democratic nomination will end very late, but Joe Biden will somehow win

Michael Bloomberg will be much stronger than people think. Buttigieg will stick around a long time. Sanders will never let it go. This may go to the convention, or get pretty close. But yeah, Biden will end up with it.

Prediction 6: Donald Trump will win re-election

Though, he will win with fewer Electoral College votes than he won in 2016. His re-election will cause millions of Americans to go simultaneously insane. Take it to the bank.

Prediction 7: Susan Collins will defeat Sara Gideon

It will be the most expensive political race in the state’s history, and will set records that will not be broken for a very long time. But in the end, Collins will flex her muscle and beat Gideon.

Prediction 8: Jared Golden will lose

Conventional wisdom holds that he is a good match for the 2nd Congressional District, and has done a decent job trying to be a Blue Dog. But his impeachment vote will be his doom in a strong Trump district.

Prediction 9: The Maine House will remain Democratic

But the margins will be greatly reduced, making the body much more balanced.

Prediction 10: The Maine Senate will be Republican

It will flip back, but only barely. I see a lot of 18 to 17 votes in our future.

Prediction 11: Commercial pot sales will finally begin

Another near lock of a prediction. It will happen this year.

Prediction 12: New Portland Mayor Kate Snyder will have a quiet first year

Unlike her predecessor, she will be consensus oriented and won’t antagonize everyone. There will be bumps, but she’ll be well regarded.

Prediction 13: The Legislature won’t do much

There are plenty of crazy bills coming up this session, but they won’t pass many of them as most lawmakers will try to avoid controversy.

Prediction 14: The CMP Corridor referendum will be on the 2020 ballot

They’ll get the signatures. You’ll be asked to vote on it.

Prediction 15: The people’s veto on the vaccine law will succeed

In any question like this, go where the grassroots passion is. And veto proponents would crawl over broken glass, while supporters of the mandate seem oblivious.

Prediction 16: Paul LePage will decide not to run

This is a bit of a cheat, as I don’t think he will necessarily announce as much. But I think he takes a pass, and decides against it in 2020.

Prediction 17: Bruce Poliquin will announce a run for governor

After the election is over, Poliquin will announce a challenge to Janet Mills in 2022. He won’t be alone, by the way.

Prediction 18: No Super Bowl for The Patriots

They’ll get to the AFC Championship, but will lose. The 49ers or Saints will win the Super Bowl.

Prediction 19: The Yankees will win the World Series

Nothing pains me more to write. But after signing Gerrit Cole, I can’t see anyone beating them next year.

Prediction 20: My predictions for this year will be more accurate than those of last year.

Here’s to 2020!


Matthew Gagnon

About Matthew Gagnon

Matthew Gagnon, of Yarmouth, is the Chief Executive Officer of the Maine Heritage Policy Center, a free market policy think tank based in Portland. Prior to Maine Heritage, he served as a senior strategist for the Republican Governors Association in Washington, D.C. Originally from Hampden, he has been involved with Maine politics for more than a decade.